News

According to the CME ‘Fed Watch’, the probability of the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in March is 97.5%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.5%. The probability of keeping the current rate unchanged in May is 79.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 20.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 0.5%.

On 17 February, Fed Governor Bowman spoke on the economic outlook: inflation is expected to fall, but upside risks remain, and stronger confidence in falling inflation is needed before another rate cut. Patiently waiting for a rate cut will help provide a clearer picture of the impact of government policy.   The labour market has not been strained by a slowdown in hiring, but the unemployment rate remains below the expected level of full employment and wage growth has been above the level consistent with the Fed's inflation target. For now, the US economy remains strong, with economic activity achieving solid growth and the labour market near full employment. The level of core inflation remains slightly elevated, but appears to be back on a downward trajectory. My basic expectation is that core inflation will moderate further this year. Monetary policy is not on a preset course. (Golden Ten)