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Wtf even is this, and why does it make @JoshMandell6's $444,000 Bitcoin prediction look less crazy? It's been widely observed that Bitcoin's price growth over the last 15 years follows a power curve--something like y=ax^b--which differs from other common functions, such as linear (y=ax) or exponential (y=ab^x). When the relationship between variables is fundamental (e.g., gravitational force F=Gm₁m₂/r²), we often call it a "power law." I'll leave it up to you to decide if this long-term trend qualifies as a "law," but regardless, I find value in the fit due to its longevity. Long-term fits in U.S. dollars are skewed by the changing value of the dollar—see "inflation." One way to adjust for this is to measure an asset’s value relative to an inflation-resistant asset, like the price of an ounce of gold. The idea is that gold’s price should rise to offset the dollar’s decreasing value. Here, I’m measuring the value of the Bitcoin network (market cap) in gold ounces and fitting that value to a power curve. On a log-log plot, a power curve appears as a straight line—see the top left subplot. My preference is to fit the lower values using a 0.05 quantile regression and treat that as a "support" trendline. The white line (upper left plot) is the power curve fit of Bitcoin’s market cap in gold ounces. Today’s fit value is 557,039,533 gold ounces. Since we typically value assets in U.S. dollars, it’s convenient to convert that figure. Knowing the current Bitcoin supply and the current price of gold, we can translate those 557M ounces into dollars: 557,039,533 (gold ounces) × $3,040 (dollar value of an ounce of gold) ÷ 19,839,907 (Bitcoin supply) = $85,353 (BTC-USD fit value). If you repeat this process for all past days, you get the squiggly white support line in the subplot on the right. It’s not smooth because gold’s price isn’t smooth. The blue band represents a time shift of the white support line. Simply slide the white support line left by five years. Each white line in the blue band represents a one-year shift. Doing this, we see that the peak at the end of 2017 (~$20,000) touches the "five years ahead" line. Five years later (end of 2022), the white support line equals ~$20,000. Not every peak reaches five years ahead, but we did once, so maybe we could again. So, what’s the connection to Josh? Coincidentally—if you believe in such things—Josh predicted Bitcoin would hit $84,000 a few days ago (which it did) and followed up with a price prediction of $444,000. That sounds crazy, and it is, but it’s also surprisingly close to the "five years ahead" value shown here ($462,557). Since this fit is relative to gold’s price, gold’s rise from $2,000 (2023) to $3,000 (2025) is pushing the values in the right subplot higher. If Bitcoin’s network value measured in gold continues to follow a power curve, and gold holds its current value, and Bitcoin’s price returns to "five years ahead of support," we could hit Josh’s $444K this year. That’s a lot of "ifs," but it’s fun, and I want to believe.

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