BTC Vol — week in review 12Aug24–19Aug24
BTC Vol — week in review 12Aug24–19Aug24Key metric...
BTC Vol — week in review 12Aug24–19Aug24
Key metrics: (12Aug 4pm HK -> 19Aug 4pm HK):
· BTC/USD +0.2% ($58,500 -> $58,600) , ETH/USD +2.75% ($2,550 -> $2,620)
· BTC/USD Dec (year-end) ATM vol +0.7% (61.5-> 62.2), Dec 25d RR vol +0.5% (3.6 -> 4.1)
· Global risk markets generally been trading well however BTC has remained extremely rangebound. Despite this tight range we have seen HF volatility remaining elevated as the market has struggled to stabilize at equilibrium as it has criss-crossed the pivotal space of 58.5k-59.5k.
· BTC is expected to trade within the wider range of 54–64k for the time being.
· Market appears to be trading in a tightening wedge/triangle which suggests we could witness an inflection point by the end of this week, however without a move outside the range it is hard to expect realised volatility to materially pick up.
Market Themes:
· Tradfi markets roared back last week and yet interestingly the Crypto complex was left lagging behind — oddly resembling more the moves in USD yields (which bounced from the lows but didn’t do much from there).
· Powell will be in focus end of this week with Jackson Hole coming up. Markets expecting at least one cut (and slim chance of a 50bp cut).
· Geopolitics have been quieter in the last week and markets are beginning to feel more summer like ahead of the Labour Day holiday in the US.
ATM implied vols:
· Front-end over the week continued to drift lower despite the high HF realised vol. This was largely explained by the compressing ranges (i.e. terminal distributions). However Vega found good buyers during the beginning part of the week which drove the curves steeper.
· The Election weight began to find more demand with the market seeing what looks to be Election related put spread buying. Election weight overall appears quite fairly priced here.
· If the Spot ranges holds here then one should expect to see the August tenors compressing further possibly steepening against September dates.
· Skew/Convexity:
· Very sideways week for convexity and skew; front end edged up a little in flies as the ATM vol came off.
· Spot-Vol correlation very locally continues to feel negative, but less so than we had last week. Below 55–56k expect gamma to find demand and back at 61–62k expect vols to remain soft.
Good luck for the week ahead!
You can use SignalPlus Trading Compass on t.signalplus.com to get more real-time crypto information. To receive timely updates and engage with a broader community, we cordially invite you to join and follow our official link for seamless communication and interaction with community members:
SignalPlus Official Links
Trading Terminal: https://t.signalplus.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SignalPlus_Web3
Discord: https://discord.gg/signalplus
Telegram: https://t.me/SignalPlus_Official
Medium: https://medium.com/@signalplus_web3
Website: https://www.signalplus.com/
Trading Ideas: https://t.me/SignalPlus_Playground
免责声明:文章中的所有内容仅代表作者的观点,与本平台无关。用户不应以本文作为投资决策的参考。
你也可能喜欢
2024年最佳加密预售:这就是为什么PropiChain的RWA和AI功能脱颖而出
加密货币世界充满了新的机遇,但很少有预售能像PropiChain那样令人兴奋。
Consensys推出Linea Association以推动zkEVM网络的去中心化增长
Linea Association将于2025年第一季度推出Linea代币,允许代币持有者参与治理决策。
Michael Saylor预计比特币将达到10万美元-最新加密货币新闻
MicroStrategy的联合创始人兼董事长Michael Saylor对比特币的未来价值表示强烈乐观。在最近接受CNBC采访时,