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With Bitcoin dominance over the crypto market showing subtle signs of weakening, crypto analysts are now split on when the true altcoin season will arrive. According to data from CoinGecko, the altcoin market cap has fallen nearly 42% from its all-time high of over $1.89 trillion, reached in early December last year. The rally at the time was driven by the hype surrounding Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory, which fueled hopes of a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto. However, despite such measures now in place, the altcoin market hasn’t bounced back. Ethereum ( ETH ), the biggest altcoin, is still down 17.3% over the past month. Other major names like XRP ( XRP ), Solana ( SOL ), Dogecoin ( DOGE ), and Cardano ( ADA ) have also taken hits, falling anywhere from 14% to 30%. As the bearish momentum shows no sign of leaving the altcoin markets, the crypto community is watching closely for signs of the next altcoin season and when to dive in. For altcoins to start rallying, Bitcoin dominance needs to drop; at least, that’s what several market experts are telling their followers. According to pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades, altcoin dominance has struggled to gain momentum due to Bitcoin’s continued strength and the growing stablecoin market . “For altcoins to gain back dominance against BTC, stables, and the other majors, you need to see ETH/BTC gain some momentum first,” said Daan. He explained that without Ethereum leading the way, a broader altcoin breakout is unlikely since most coins are built on Ethereum and many liquidity pools are ETH-denominated. A strong ETH performance, he added, tends to create the kind of wealth effect needed for the rest of the altcoin market to rally. Daan emphasized that while short-lived altcoin rallies do happen, a sustained trend usually starts with high-timeframe confirmation, often following a retest after the initial breakout. Until then, he suggests patience or strategic dollar-cost averaging into fundamentally strong projects. In a statement to crypto.news, Georgii Verbitskii, founder of TYMIO, agreed that altcoins are currently in a “waiting game.” According to him, “a true altseason, in the classic sense where Bitcoin consolidates and altcoins rally independently, can be expected only after Bitcoin breaks its previous all-time high.” Until then, he believes investors will keep viewing altcoins as the riskier side of crypto, which is why big money is likely to remain on the sidelines for now. Echoing similar sentiments, Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts believes the market will see “one last rally” this cycle, possibly by June, but only those with real utility and active networks are likely to benefit. “Activity drives prices,” Coutts said , noting that only “quality altcoins” will see meaningful recoveries. Meanwhile, technical analyst Rekt Capital argues that altseason is inevitable but will only begin once Bitcoin dominance starts to decline, likely from around the 71% mark, according to a chart he shared. When writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 62.1%. "Will there ever be another #Altseason ?" Yes, the next time #BTC Dominance collapses Which is likely going to start from ~71% (red) $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/G8am7joVqf Market commentator Sensei suggests Bitcoin dominance may have already peaked, pointing to a rising wedge pattern on the BTC Dominance chart, a formation that analysts view as early signs of a potential reversal. See below. Despite the optimism shared by some analysts, altcoin season isn’t here yet, at least not according to some of the crypto industry’s go-to indicators. For instance, Capriole’s Altcoin Speculation Index, which tracks investor appetite for high-risk altcoins, has dropped to 12%, down over 50% since December. Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, which compares altcoin performance to Bitcoin over 90 days, sits at just 14 out of 100, signalling a market still firmly in “Bitcoin Season.”

Despite Mantle announcing major ecosystem updates, the MNT token remains in a bearish trend—though it has established a new, major support level managed to hold it for the past few weeks. On March 2, Mantle ( MNT ) released a letter to MNT token holders, outlining the project’s plans for Q2 of this year. The key highlights include upcoming launch of Mantle Banking, a unified fiat-crypto neobank, and Mantle Index Four (MI4), a tokenized, institutional-grade crypto fund. Mantle just released their Q2 letter to token holders, revealing some of their biggest moves yet. From a tokenized index fund with an initial commitment $400M to crypto-native banking, and upcoming strategies — there's a lot to unwrap. Here’s your no-fluff overview 👇 pic.twitter.com/UnhTArywjd Additionally, the letter outlined key achievements as the project moves into Q2. Notably, Mantle has integrated EigenDA on mainnet to enhance data availability, attracted over 27K cmETH in its fixed yield vault, and secured Mantle Network ’s modular architecture with 162.9K mETH. FBTC surpassed $1.2 billion in total value locked and expanded across multiple EVM chains. The project has also made strides toward becoming the largest ZK rollup offering institutional-grade security, with OP-Succinct development now live on testnet. Despite these developments , MNT has been in a clear downtrend since Feb. 3, when the price started to consistently make lower lows and lower highs. Around that time, the price also started trading below both the 20-day Exponential Moving Average and 50-day Simple Moving Average. However, it broke above the 20-day EMA for about two weeks in March, while still trading below 50-day SMA. On March 30, MNT dropped back below the 20-day EMA ($0.79) where it continues to hover, currently trading at $0.74. The Relative Strength Index is at 38.60, trending downward but not yet in oversold territory, meaning there’s room for more downside. The MACD indicator remains bearish, with both the MACD line and the signal line below zero. Overall, the bearish pressure dominates for now. On the bright side, the price has been holding a major horizontal support zone at around $0.72 since mid-March. The first major resistance is at $0.80, aligning with the 20-day EMA. A stronger resistance level is at $1.00, where the price consolidated in February before resuming the downtrend. A move above $0.80 would be the first sign of potential recovery, but for a chance of trend reversal, MNT would need to break above $1.00 with strong volume and hold.

Key market indicators suggest that traders are exercising extreme caution in the crypto markets, as Trump’s tariffs spark widespread bearish sentiment. The rapidly escalating trade war between the U.S. and most of its major trading partners is striking fear into traders. On Friday, April 4, funding rates on most centralized and decentralized exchanges dropped below the 0.005% threshold , a signal of extreme bearish sentiment. At the same time, liquidation rates are down 42% over the past 24 hours. While this may seem like good news, it likely indicates that traders are hedging and staying on the sidelines. This aligns with a sharp decline in trading volumes, which dropped by 22.71% in 24 hours to $247.6 billion. Altogether, these figures point to plummeting market activity. The market is showing other signs of distress. For one, on April 3, the crypto fear and greed index was in “extreme fear” territory , at 25 points. What is more, Bitcoin (BTC) , which fell to $81,000 after the announcement, is facing a “death cross,” historically an indicator of high volatility. Ugly daily on Bitcoin Rejection at the 50 and 200 day moving averages Death cross imminent pic.twitter.com/YJMmvC4Eef Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average is nearing its 200-day moving average, and may soon cross below it. This crossover is generally seen as a bearish indicator, suggesting that traders are bracing for a turbulent period across the crypto markets. Both crypto and stock market have been in distress since the April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs on virtually all US trading partners. Donald Trump announced minimal tariffs of 10% on all foreign goods, with larger tariffs on select countries. Namely, China was hit by a 34% tariff. In response, several countries, including China and the European Union, are preparing retaliatory measures. Traders now fear that this escalating trade conflict could drive up consumer prices, disrupt global supply chains, and spark a recession.

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