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lunc & luna vibes 🤣

Comparing Current and Past Crypto Market Corrections – Lessons from 2018, 2020, and 2022 Cryptocurrency markets are known for their extreme volatility, with periods of rapid growth followed by sharp corrections. Over the years, major downturns in 2018, 2020, and 2022 have provided valuable lessons about market cycles, investor sentiment, and recovery patterns. By comparing these past corrections with the current market conditions, we can better understand potential trends and future outcomes. 2018: The Aftermath of the ICO Boom What Happened? The 2018 crypto bear market followed Bitcoin’s meteoric rise to nearly $20,000 in late 2017. This surge was fueled by speculative investments, especially in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). However, as regulatory scrutiny increased and many ICO projects failed to deliver, market confidence collapsed. Bitcoin fell over 80% from its peak, and many altcoins lost over 90% of their value. Key Lessons: 1. Speculation Without Utility Leads to Crashes – The ICO craze drove unsustainable price increases. Many projects had no working products, leading to massive losses when hype faded. 2. Regulatory Uncertainty Impacts the Market – Governments cracked down on ICOs, particularly in the U.S. and China, leading to panic selling and liquidity issues. 3. Bear Markets Can Last Years – The 2018 downturn persisted through 2019, showing that crypto winters can be prolonged. 2020: The COVID-19 Crash and Fast Recovery What Happened? In March 2020, global financial markets crashed due to COVID-19 fears, and crypto was no exception. Bitcoin dropped nearly 50% in a single day, falling below $4,000. However, unlike 2018, the recovery was swift. By the end of the year, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $20,000, driven by institutional investment and the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi). Key Lessons: 1. Macro Events Impact Crypto – Traditional financial crises can spill over into the crypto market, but crypto also recovers when broader markets do. 2. Institutional Adoption Is a Game Changer – Unlike 2018, institutional investors like MicroStrategy and Tesla began accumulating Bitcoin, providing long-term support. 3. Liquidity and Stimulus Matter – Central banks injected trillions into the global economy, pushing investors toward alternative assets, including crypto. 2022: Terra Collapse, FTX Scandal, and the Harshest Bear Market What Happened? The 2022 crypto crash was triggered by multiple catastrophic events. First, the collapse of Terra’s UST stablecoin and LUNA ecosystem erased billions from the market. Later, the downfall of FTX, one of the largest crypto exchanges, further shattered investor confidence.$BTC $ETH $XRP

🚀💰 Bitcoin's Wedding – A Crypto Love Story 💍🎉 The story begins in a grand Blockchain Hall 🏛️, where the biggest wedding in the crypto world is about to take place. Bitcoin (BTC) 💰 is the groom, standing strong and confident, while his bride, Ethereum (ETH) 🔷, is beautifully dressed in a decentralized wedding gown. The entire crypto community 🪙 is invited, and each coin has its own quirks! --- 🎺🥁 The Arrival of the Baraat 🚗💨 The wedding procession arrives with great excitement 🎶🥁, but just before entering Blockchain Hall, a "Gas Fee" 🚦💰 toll booth appears. Bitcoin (BTC) 💰 smartly uses its Lightning Network ⚡ to enter for free, but poor Dogecoin (DOGE) 🐶 starts whining: "Wow, this gas fee is more than my entire market cap! 😭" 🔹 Solana (SOL) 🚀 speeds ahead and reaches the venue first, but suddenly freezes ❌: "Oh no! My network crashed again! 😵" --- 💍❤️ The Wedding Ceremony 📜✅ As the Qazi (Smart Contract 🤖) begins the ceremony, suddenly, Ethereum Gas Fees 🚦💰 spike again! Binance Coin (BNB) 🏆 quickly steps in: "Don’t worry, I’ll process this transaction at a discount! 😉" 💞 As soon as the wedding is official, Shiba Inu (SHIBA) 🐕, Ethereum’s little brother, jumps up excitedly: "Now it’s my turn to go to the moon! 🚀🌕" But Cardano (ADA) 📚, the ever-logical one, sighs and says: "First, upgrade your technology, then talk about the moon! 🤦" --- 🎊 The Reception & Market Crash 📉🔥 🥗 The reception begins, and all the crypto guests start withdrawing their funds happily. But suddenly, a Whale 🐋 dumps Bitcoin, causing a market crash 📉💥! 😱 Terra (LUNA) 🌕 panics and screams: "Oh no! I just went to zero! 😭" 😎 Bitcoin (BTC) 💰 calmly looks at Ethereum (ETH) 🔷 and says: "Don't worry, my honeymoon plans 🌴🏝️ are safe… I always bounce back! 🔄📈" 🔚 (The End – But the market’s ups and downs will never end! 😆📊) $BTC $ETH $LTC $BCH $ETC $BNB $BGB $SOL

Author: Miles Deutscher Source: Miles Deutscher X account Translation: Shenchao TechFlow The 4-year cycle has come to an end. We are entering a new paradigm in cryptocurrency—survival of the fittest, elimination of the unfit. Here are my strategies for navigating market changes in 2025 to continue accumulating wealth in uncharted territory. Before sharing my strategies, let’s explore why the 4-year cycle has become a thing of the past. I believe there are two reasons why the 4-year cycle is no longer applicable. First, from the supply side, the halving effect of Bitcoin ($BTC) is gradually diminishing. With each halving, the reduction in the issuance of new Bitcoins is becoming smaller. For example, the halvings in 2012 and 2016 saw reductions of 50% and 25% in issuance, respectively, which had a significant impact on market prices. However, by 2024, the reduction in issuance due to halving is only 6.25%. This means that the price-driving effect of halving is no longer as strong as before. Second, from the demand side, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs is a significant variable that has permanently changed the market rules. Bitcoin ETFs are financial instruments that allow investors in traditional financial markets to invest in Bitcoin indirectly. Since their launch, they have become the most successful ETF products in history, with demand far exceeding expectations. This influx of demand has not only changed the overall landscape of the crypto market but has also broken many old market rules (such as the 4-year cycle). The greatest impact of ETFs is reflected in the altcoin market. Let me elaborate. In the past, you might have often seen a chart showing the price rotation relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins. This was indeed valid in 2021. But now, this relationship has broken down. (The original image is from Miles Deutscher , compiled by Shenchao TechFlow) In 2017 and 2021, when Bitcoin prices rose, many wealthy Bitcoin whales would transfer profits into altcoins on centralized exchanges (CEX), thus driving the prosperity of the altcoin market. However, now most new funds are entering the market through Bitcoin ETFs, and these funds are not flowing into the altcoin market. In other words, the way funds flow has fundamentally changed, and altcoins no longer benefit from the wealth effect of Bitcoin. Retail investors have directly flocked to high-risk speculative projects on-chain, known as "on-chain casino games" (Pump Fun). Compared to 2021, the number of retail investors in this cycle has significantly decreased. This is mainly due to the pressures of the macroeconomic environment and the fact that many suffered heavy losses in the last cycle due to events like LUNA, FTX, BlockFi, and Voyager. However, those retail players who remain in the market have directly skipped mainstream coins and chosen to seek opportunities on-chain. You can read my detailed analysis of how this phenomenon affects the market here . If my judgment is correct, meaning that cycle theory is no longer applicable, what changes can we expect in the future market? I have one piece of bad news and one piece of good news to share. The bad news is: It has become harder to "lie flat and make money." This is a natural signal of the industry's gradual maturation. In fact, there are now more trading opportunities in the market, but if you continue to use strategies from 2021—such as holding a bunch of altcoins and quietly waiting for the "altcoin season" to arrive—you may be disappointed or even perform poorly. The good news is: Since there is no longer a so-called four-year cycle, this also means that prolonged bear markets triggered by specific factors in cryptocurrency will no longer occur. Of course, from a macroeconomic perspective, long-term bear markets are still possible, as cryptocurrencies do not operate in isolation, and their correlation with the macroeconomy is now tighter than ever. The market's "risk appetite periods" and "risk aversion periods" are more likely to be driven by changes in macroeconomic conditions. These changes often trigger short-term mini echo bubbles, rather than sustained months of one-sided upward trends. The so-called echo bubbles refer to short-term market rebounds brought about by changes in the macro environment, which, while smaller in scale, share similarities with past large bubbles. In these bubbles, there are plenty of opportunities to make money. For example, in 2024, we witnessed rotations of different hot spots: November was the meme craze, December was the AI concept, and January was for AI agents. Undoubtedly, new trends will emerge next. If you are sharp enough, these are excellent opportunities to make money, but they require a strategy that is slightly different from past cycles. A few days ago, I had dinner with @gametheorizing , who made a very insightful point. Many people are pursuing an ultimate goal: whether it's to multiply their portfolio by 5, 10, or even 20 times. But in fact, a better strategy is to focus on multiple small bets rather than going all-in. By continuously accumulating a series of small victories, the long-term returns from this approach may be greater. Therefore, instead of betting everything and hoping for the altcoin season to quickly double your assets, try to accumulate wealth through the compounding effect of time. Specifically, you can adopt the following strategy: Small bets > Take profits, re-bet > Take profits again, repeat. This is also why many top traders and thinkers in the crypto space (like Jordi) were once professional poker players. They learned to view each trade through the lens of probability, assessing possible outcomes rather than betting blindly. My portfolio is currently allocated as follows: 50% invested in high-conviction assets with long-term potential, and 50% in stablecoins and active trading. I will use this portion of funds to seek short-term opportunities in the market, entering and exiting flexibly. Additionally, I use stablecoins as a benchmark for measuring the success or failure of trades. Each time I exit a trade, I convert profits back into stablecoins, allowing me to clearly see my earnings. If your cryptocurrency portfolio is too diversified and you don't know how to respond to current market changes, last week I shared a guide that explains how to optimize your portfolio based on market changes. In this article, I emphasized a key point: the importance of setting "invalidation" standards for each trade. Just like when you decide to buy a certain cryptocurrency, you need a clear reason to validate your choice. "Invalidation" refers to the criteria for exiting a trade promptly when market conditions no longer meet your expectations. I have noticed that many people enter trades without basic risk management awareness and without setting clear exit criteria. This often leads to unnecessary losses. If you are looking for a suggestion that can significantly enhance your future profitability, it is this: Establish clear technical or fundamental "invalidation" standards for each trade. This will not only help you manage risk better but also improve the overall efficiency of your trades. Of course, your confidence level in a trade and the expected holding period may influence how you set "invalidation" standards or trigger conditions. But regardless, this does not change the fact that you need to plan ahead. Having a clear exit plan is one of the keys to successful trading. Although the current market may not fully adhere to past cyclical patterns, I remain optimistic about the future. As long as you maintain the right mindset and strategy, 2025 still holds great potential for growth. Currently, we are in a bear market phase, but market trends will eventually change, bringing many new opportunities. Before that, your primary goal is to survive. The returns in the cryptocurrency market often belong to those who can endure through extreme volatility. No matter how the market fluctuates, patience and resilience are the keys to ultimate success.

Having a Cryptocurrency specialist by my side has provided me with strategic insights that significantly reduce my risks. he has helped me establish effective risk management practices, allowing me to protect my investments while maximizing returns. I no longer feel overwhelmed by the emotional rollercoaster that trading can bring; his steady hand keeps me focused and disciplined. $SOL $ETH $DUCK $ONDO $XRP $PEPECOIN $SUI $ANIME $HYPE $BERA $TRUMP $BGB $DOGS $DOGE $FARTCOIN $BTC $PLUME $LUNA $STPT $NEIROETH $U2U