Is Toncoin ($TON) Set for a Bullish Reversal? Key Updates and Technical Outlook

Toncoin ($TON), the native token of The Open Network, saw sharp price swings over the past year, following key legal and ecosystem developments.

TON, a decentralized Layer-1 blockchain developed by Telegram’s creators, was introduced in 2018, with its mainnet going live in May 2021.

Although Toncoin gained over 800% in value since launch, regulatory and ecosystem challenges weighed on its recent performance.

Legal Troubles and Airdrop Controversies Weigh on Toncoin Price

The latter half of 2024 proved difficult for Toncoin as Pavel Durov’s legal troubles in France pressured its price, along with backlash over the Hamster Kombat and NotPixel airdrops.

Still, the TON blockchain ranked among the top-performing networks in the sector last year.

On March 17, Toncoin saw relief after Durov was permitted to return to Dubai , which triggered a 20% price surge, hinting at a potential recovery for $TON.

The rebound helped restore investor confidence in the project’s long-term trajectory.

Venture Capital Firms Back $TON Development

In December 2024, OKX Ventures, the investment arm of crypto exchange OKX, announced a $5 million investment in TON Ventures.

This venture capital fund supports Telegram-native applications built on TON’s blockchain infrastructure.

The fund focuses on attracting experienced developers to expand the TON ecosystem.

Recent disclosures show that venture capital firms collectively hold over $400 million in $TON.

Firms including Sequoia, Ribbit, Benchmark, and SkyBridge have committed significant funds, indicating long-term interest in the project.

With user numbers rising, TON continues to draw interest from venture backers.

Toncoin ($TON) Technical Analysis: Testing Key Support Levels

Toncoin has lost over half its value since its June peak, dropping nearly 55% from its all-time high of $8.24. At the time of writing, $TON trades at $3.671, down 8.35% on the day.

Despite recent losses, charts show a potential breakout from a descending trendline, with an inverse Head and Shoulders (HS) pattern forming—often viewed as a sign of a bullish reversal.

$TON/$USDT 1D Chart showing potential breakout from a descending trendline / Source: TradingView

Trading volume has risen by 18%, suggesting moderate market activity, although the overall momentum remains uncertain.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 58.37, nearing bullish territory but not yet in overbought conditions.

The key support levels to monitor are between $3.50 and $4.00.

A breakdown below these levels could drive prices lower.

However, if Toncoin ($TON) holds above the $4.00–$4.50 range—aligned with the neckline of the inverse HS pattern—it could confirm the reversal and set a potential target of $5.00–$5.50.

A move below $3.00 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend.