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UBS has urged investors to remain steady during recent market turbulence, offering three core rationales to support continued confidence despite escalating volatility. In a note issued April 3, the bank’s U.S. editorial team pointed to historical resilience of market downturns, the protective benefits of a liquidity strategy, and the tactical opportunities presented by heightened price swings. First, UBS emphasized that while painful, market sell-offs are generally temporary. The firm highlighted that market declines of over 10% are considered corrections, while drops beyond 20% constitute bear markets. The S&P 500 is currently in correction territory, but UBS advised investors to plan for the possibility of a bear market. The bank detailed: During bear markets since World War II, the S&P 500 fell an average of 32% from peak to trough, and it took an average of three years before reaching a new all-time high. Those with diversified holdings saw smaller losses; a 60/40 stock-bond mix declined an average of 19%, recovering in approximately two years and three months. Next, UBS explained the importance of a liquidity strategy to prevent lasting losses during market downturns. “With this financial cushion, we can maintain our lifestyle comfortably while we wait for markets to recover,” the firm stated. “A well-funded liquidity strategy—holding enough cash, bonds, and borrowing capacity to cover spending needs for the next 3–5 years—is enough to fully insulate our day-to-day spending from market volatility.” UBS added: “Tapping into the liquidity strategy instead of liquidating investments at ‘bear market prices’ can help us to avoid the risk of permanently locking in losses.” Lastly, UBS encouraged clients to view volatility as a chance to act strategically. This includes portfolio rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting. The bank shared: Volatility tends to improve the risk/return profile of options strategies and structured investments, allowing you to potentially increase your portfolio’s yield and/or growth potential while maintaining protection against potential losses. 免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。

JPMorgan issued a stark warning about growing economic risks on April 4, as Richard Madigan, chief investment officer of its private bank, outlined the potential consequences of escalating tariffs. In a note titled “High Anxiety: Market Implications of Tariffs,” Madigan described a dramatic shift in the market narrative, from optimism to fear, as trade tensions deepen. “Liberation to isolation,” he wrote, following China’s decision to impose a 34% counter tariff on all imported U.S. goods. He warned that the current policy path may drive the U.S. and global economies closer to recession. The JPMorgan executive projected that tariffs, if left in place, could push inflation up by “+1-2%” and take a comparable toll on economic growth. He warned: If the U.S. tariffs announced stick and we don’t see further tit-for-tat escalation, rising concern of slower growth and higher inflation may become something worse, a race to recession. Self-inflicted pain. He advised investors to monitor 10-year bond yields closely, as a drop would suggest markets are increasingly pricing in recession risk. Madigan also flagged corporate earnings expectations as overly optimistic: “I expect the 10% earnings forecast this year will quickly ratchet lower. The same for next year.” Madigan likened the U.S. trade stance to an overly aggressive opening in a negotiation: “We’re watching in real time a ‘101-class’ on negotiation. It begins with anchoring.” But when starting points are “absurdly high,” he cautioned, credibility suffers. “No one’s happy with the tariffs announced except the President,” Madigan wrote, suggesting the current approach risks alienating trading partners and dragging the global economy down. On monetary policy, he pushed back against expectations for four Federal Reserve rate cuts, stating: That strikes me unlikely. I’m anchoring on one, the second half of this year. If growth abruptly turns lower, perhaps two. Time will tell. With consumer spending faltering and companies potentially scaling back hiring, the JPMorgan executive concluded: “Tail risk is higher, markets aren’t inexpensive, the outlook’s uncertain.” 免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。

Bond market is already pricing with 100% probability a rate cut in June, and with 41.5% probability in May.

The co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, makes a bold prediction: the price of Bitcoin could surpass $250,000 by the end of 2025. This analysis is based on recent adjustments to monetary policy that could spur strong demand for the leading cryptocurrency. Arthur Hayes’ recent analysis is sure to catch the attention of many crypto market observers. According to him, the BTC price could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the FED decides to pivot towards a quantitative easing (QE) policy. Specifically, Hayes bases this crypto prediction on the idea that the value of Bitcoin is heavily influenced by market expectations regarding the future supply of fiat currency. Analysis: If the FED increases the supply of dollars by adopting QE, demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin could rise due to the perceived devaluation of traditional currency. The latest actions by the FED are already showing signs of such a pivot. On April 1, it reduced the capacity for Treasury bond reductions from $25 billion to only $5 billion per month. According to Hayes, this decision marks the beginning of a bullish cycle for crypto assets. Having reached a local low of $76,500 last month, Bitcoin could indeed start its surge towards $250,000. Not all expert crypto analysts share Arthur Hayes’ optimistic vision . Jamie Coutts from Real Vision estimates, for example, that Bitcoin would hit a peak of $132,000 by the end of 2025. These projections are more conservative. They take into account current market trends, suggesting a less drastic impact of monetary policy on BTC’s price. But that’s not all! According to data from Polymarket , only 9% of traders are betting on a Bitcoin at $250,000. The majority (at 60%) believe that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency will stabilize around $110,000 in 2025. This sentiment reflects hesitation about the extent of the expected rally for BTC. While Hayes’ prediction is ambitious, it highlights the importance of monetary policy in determining the price of Bitcoin. Investors will need to closely monitor the FED’s decisions as well as the evolution of the global economy. These could redefine the trajectories of cryptocurrencies in the long term.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to move toward renewed quantitative easing (QE), potentially focused on the U.S. Treasury bond market. This expectation follows a reported meeting between Powell and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in early March. In a blog post , BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggested Powell is preparing to scale back the Fed’s current quantitative tightening (QT) program. Hayes believes the Fed will support Treasury markets with new liquidity injections, possibly starting this summer. According to central banking observers, Bessent pointed out to Powell during their meeting that upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decisions must align with the Treasury Department’s significant financing needs. The March meeting reportedly raised the urgency of potentially resuming QE to help absorb the large volume of new Treasury bond issuance required to manage ongoing federal deficits and handle substantial government debt rollovers smoothly. However, capital gains tax receipts remain a major funding source for the federal government. Those tax receipts depend heavily on rising equity market valuations to meet projections. Related: FOMC meeting this week: All eyes on Powell for rate hints and potential QT end, impacting crypto U.S. President Donald Trump’s stated trade policy goals also play a role in the broader economic picture. His administration’s focus remains centered on attempting to rebalance the large U.S. current account deficit and encourage shifts back toward more domestic manufacturing activity. President Trump has maintained publicly since his first term in 2016 that the U.S. trade deficit, particularly with China, is unsustainable for the nation’s long-term health. Historical economic context reinforces concerns about these long-term trade trajectories. China’s 1994 currency devaluation and its subsequent 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) are often linked by economists to the decades-long offshoring of significant U.S. manufacturing capacity that followed. The result was a deep and persistent U.S. trade deficit over many years, as official current account data confirms. Trump’s proposed reversal of that long-term trend requires major domestic industrial policy support and likely substantial private investment. The Federal Reserve’s independent monetary policy decisions play a critical role in potentially enabling or hindering these broader fiscal and trade policy shifts pursued by the administration. Persistently tight monetary conditions, for example, risk slowing overall economic growth and potentially weakening equity market performance significantly. Related: Hayes Dismisses Tariffs as Noise, Eyes Fed QE Fueling $110k+ Bitcoin Powell’s potential policy adjustment toward renewed QE therefore likely signals a perceived need for broader fiscal and monetary policy alignment. Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.