Citibank report predicts three main scenarios and market impacts of U.S. tariff policy on April 2nd

Citibank predicted three main scenarios for the U.S. tariff policy day on April 2nd in its latest report, and analyzed the corresponding market impacts: 

1. Announcing reciprocal tariffs only: The market reaction under this scenario is relatively limited.
   
2. Reciprocal tariffs plus Value Added Tax (VAT): The dollar index may immediately rise by 50-100 basis points, and global stock markets may fall.

3. In addition to reciprocal tariffs and VAT, it also includes industry-specific tariffs: The market reaction under this scenario could be more severe.

The report pointed out that after the S&P 500 had its worst quarter start since 2020, analysts have been warning that the potential risk of subsequent declines is greater than increases. It is believed that future tariffs and retaliatory actions will be key; the market response on April 2nd will depend on the timing of these tariffs, especially industry-specific ones as well as other countries' speed in responding to reciprocal tariffs.