Goldman Sachs: Trump's reciprocal tariffs may be twice as high as market expectations, and the market may see an "explosive impact" on April 2

On the eve of Trump's announcement of equivalent tariff policies on April 2, Goldman Sachs' latest report warns that the actual tax rate may reach twice the market's expectations, and predicts that the White House may adopt a "fire first, withdraw later" strategy, causing the market to experience "collapse first, stabilize later" violent fluctuations.

Recently, Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump will adopt a "targeted strategy," which temporarily boosted U.S. stocks. Goldman Sachs' chief political strategist Alec Phillips pointed out in the report that although equivalent tariffs may cover the vast majority of U.S. imports, the specific tax rates are still unclear.

He warned, "Preliminary tariff statements tend to cause negative scares in the market" for two reasons: first, government officials indicate that higher tax rates may be proposed initially as a bargaining chip, as seen in the past when tariffs were raised on Canada and Mexico with a "high-profile announcement followed by withdrawal" operation; second, Goldman's survey shows that the market's average expected equivalent tax rate is 9%, but the actual tax rate may be close to twice the expected rate.

Goldman's final conclusion: the market may experience an "explosive impact" on April 2, but the effects may quickly dissipate.