Crypto narratives persist despite data gaps

Misleading narratives continue to dominate cryptocurrency markets, often fueled by speculative sentiment rather than verified onchain data, according to analysts.

According to a research published on March 22 by CryptoQuant contributor "onchained," sensationalist claims—like that Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) long-term holders (LTH) are "capitulating"—do not align with empirical data.

Onchained cited the Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI), which tracks dormant Bitcoin supply movements, to refute claims of LTH capitulation.

The data shows no significant selling pressure, reinforcing a narrative of structural demand outpacing supply.

“The data leaves no room for speculation,” the analyst emphasised.

Glassnode corroborated this view, noting subdued LTH activity and declining sell-side pressure.

The controversy around Bitcoin's four-year price cycle, which is typically linked to halving events, has gotten more heated.

MN Trading Capital’s Michael van de Poppe argued the theory is obsolete for altcoins, while Bitwise Invest’s Matt Hougan attributed its decline to shifting U.S. regulatory policies.

“Crypto has moved in four-year cycles since its earliest days. But the change in DC introduces a new wave that will play out over a decade,” Hougan stated.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared Bitcoin’s bull cycle “over,” predicting 6–12 months of sideways or bearish action.

He cited drying liquidity and whales selling at lower prices as key indicators.

However, proponents of structural demand argue these trends could stabilise markets long-term.

Beyond cyclical debates, 2025’s dominant themes include AI-driven trading bots, memecoins, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation.

While these trends attract speculative capital, analysts caution against uncritical adoption.

Memecoins, for example, remain highly volatile, with their value often tied to social media hype rather than utility.

Crypto narratives reflect a market balancing data-driven analysis with speculative fervor.

As onchained advised, investors should “trust data, not noise,” cross-checking claims against onchain metrics to avoid misinformation.

While structural demand and policy shifts may reshape cycles, vigilance remains essential amid conflicting signals.