$102K BTC price 'short squeeze'? 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin ( BTC ) tests traders’ patience as a new week gets underway — can anything unstick BTC/USD from its sub-$100,000 range?

• BTC price inertia makes market participants increasingly nervous as attention focuses on a short squeeze.

• Fed minutes are due, and markets are in no mood to bet on the US inflation picture getting better soon.

• Exchange flows warn of a “bearish phase” for BTC price action, which is only beginning.

• BTC demand continues to paint a positive picture of investor confidence despite the bull market taking a month-long breather.

• Unrealized profits increasingly support the idea that a Bitcoin bull market top is not so far away.

Liquidity boosts “short squeeze” hopes

A stubborn trading range has left Bitcoin traders demanding more before betting on a trend in either direction this week.

Since its latest all-time highs in mid-January, BTC/USD has languished in the middle of its three-month trading corridor. It has also failed to seal $100,000 as definitive support, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As time goes on, however, misgivings about the range floor at $90,000 holding are growing.

“If we dip lower to the range lows ($91k), I think it would be more likely to go lower around $88k. So I'd be careful longing the range lows blindly,” popular trader CrypNuevo wrote in a thread on X on Feb. 16.

“I guess many traders have set their long limit orders with stop-loss (SL) right below it, so it's possible to see a deviation.”

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

CrypNuevo used exchange liquidation data from crypto trading platform Hyblock Capital to identify two key potential short-term price magnets going forward.

“Since we're at the discount area of the range, very close to the range lows, I'm looking for longs,” he told followers. 

“I do think that the upside liquidations will likely get hit fairly soon ($99.2k) but would love to re-enter at the lower liquidations ($93.3k) first.”

BTC liquidations chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Fellow trader TheKingfisher, who specializes in liquidation analysis, argued that a short squeeze was the most likely next event on short timeframes with Bitcoin dipping below $96,000 after the weekly open.

“$BTC liquidity is currently piled up on the above within this consolidation,” Mikybull Crypto agreed while examining separate liquidation data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

BTC liquidations chart. Source: Mikybull Crypto/X

Popular trader CJ meanwhile targeted $102,000 as a near-term BTC price ceiling.

“With the weekly draw at 102.5k, we have above it an imbalance and fresh supply zone so we could wick up to 105k. Therefore, 102.5k - 105k is my HTF line in the sand,” he wrote in part of an X post on the coming week. 

“I think this region caps price, at least initially. If we flip it, I'll be looking towards 125k upside. But imo we don't and we could see a final flush into 80s before we get going again. But who knows - level to level and will let the market decide.”

Fed minutes due as US jobless claims mount

A short Wall Street trading week due to the President’s Day holiday on Feb. 17 sees jobless claims leading macroeconomic data reports.

Due on Feb. 20, these will follow the release of the minutes from the January Federal Reserve meeting where officials voted to pause interest rate cuts .

Inflation has proven more persistent than estimates imagined over the past month, and as a result, markets have pushed back expectations of further rate cuts coming this year.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of even a minimal 0.25% cut at the next Fed meeting in March at just 2.5%.

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

With the minutes expected to underscore the Fed’s hawkish stance, the coming days will also see a raft of senior officials take to the stage in public speaking appearances.

“Short but busy week ahead,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter thus summarized in an X thread on the week’s outlook.

Kobeissi noted that risk-asset markets continue to trade near record highs despite the resurgent inflation markers and unemployment trending higher.

“Jobless claims in Washington DC are up +55% over the last 6 weeks. We are ABOVE 2008 levels and it barely makes a dent in this chart,” it warned while analyzing separate data. 

“How bad can this get?”

Jobless claims data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

A “bearish phase” for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin exchange flows are the subject of concern this week as a long-term BTC price indicator flips red.

The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric, which monitors BTC flows between spot and derivative exchanges, is signaling that a “bearish phase” for price action has only just begun.

As shown by J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, a downward change in IFP trend traditionally accompanies the start of price deterioration. 

“When a significant amount of Bitcoin is transferred to derivative exchanges, the indicator signals a bullish period. This suggests that traders are moving coins to open long positions in the derivatives market,” he explained in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on Feb. 15.

“However, when Bitcoin starts flowing out of derivative exchanges and into spot exchanges, it indicates the beginning of a bearish period. This typically happens when long positions are closed and large investors (whales) reduce their exposure to risk.”

Bitcoin IFP chart. Source: CryptoQuant

An accompanying chart reveals that macro BTC price tops in the past have all been preceded by new all-time highs in IFP readings — something which is nonetheless missing from the current scenario.

“Today, the indicator has turned bearish, suggesting a decline in market risk appetite and potentially marking the start of a bearish phase,” Maartunn nonetheless concluded.

As Cointelegraph reported , whales remain on the radar among analysts as potential sources of support going forward.

Demand boosts Bitcoin bull case

Other CryptoQuant findings nonetheless paint a more optimistic picture of the overall appetite for BTC at current prices.

In another Quicktake post on Feb. 17, fellow contributor Darkfost said that demand “remains high” despite a lack of BTC price trend over the past month.

The clue to this, he argues, lies in the ratio of inflows to outflows on exchanges, and in particular, its 30-day moving average (DMA).

“Despite Bitcoin trading within a broad range between $90,000 and $105,000, there is clear evidence of continued accumulation, as indicated by the 30DMA exchange inflow/outflow ratio,” he summarized.

The metric currently shows Bitcoin enjoying its first “high demand” period, as measured by the 30 DMA, since the end of the crypto bear market in late 2022. 

“Historically, when this ratio has entered what can be considered a high-demand zone, Bitcoin has typically experienced a short-term upward move,” Darkfost continued.

“Nevertheless, it's important to note that some of these outflows may be attributed to routine asset transfers by centralized exchanges to custodial wallets (ETFs, Institutionals, OTC Desk).”

Bitcoin exchange inflow/outflow ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on whale dominance of exchange inflows nearing multi-year highs — a phenomenon which, if it were to reverse, would add to the case for bull market continuation .  

Flirting with profit “euphoria”

When it comes to timing Bitcoin price cycle tops, one profit metric stands out — and 2025 is so far no exception.

Related: Bitcoin trades in tight range as XRP, LT, OM, and GT aim to move higher

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders (LTHs), which tracks unrealized gains and losses among Bitcoin investor cohorts, has now spent a month in “top” territory.

LTH investors are those hodling coins for at least six months, and that cohort has upped distribution to the market in recent months.

The motivation is clear — NUPL stayed above the key 0.75 inflection point throughout January and is now only slightly lower.

Bitcoin LTH-NUPL chart. Source: Glassnode/X

For onchain analytics firm Glassnode, extended periods above 0.75 correspond to “euphoria” among the Bitcoin investor base — a key ingredient in macro price tops.

“In prior cycles, euphoria lasted 450 → 385 → 228 days, while the average NUPL fell from 0.91 → 0.89 → 0.85,” it told X followers on Feb. 14. 

“The trend remains worth tracking.”

Bitcoin LTH-NUPL chart. Source: Glassnode/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.