Solana ETF approval probability drops to 35% before July, says Polymarket

• Polymarket Reduces Odds of Solana ETF Approval to 35% Before July 31, 2025.
• Major financial institutions such as VanEck and Grayscale continue to seek approval for Solana ETFs.
• The appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC Chairman could positively influence the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.

Market prediction platform Polymarket recently adjusted its estimates, indicating a 35% probability of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved before July 31, 2025. This reduction reflect the regulatory uncertainties surrounding cryptocurrency ETFs in the United States.

At the time of publication, the price of Solana was listed at US$198,17, up 4.1% in the last 24 hours.

Previously, in December 2024, Polymarket had pegged a 76% chance of such approval. The lowered expectations come amid ongoing regulatory challenges facing digital assets. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has maintained a cautious stance toward approving crypto ETFs, especially those tied to altcoins like Solana and XRP.

Despite the headwinds, major financial institutions continue to pursue approval of Solana ETFs. Firms including VanEck, Grayscale and 21Shares have active applications with the SEC, with initial decision deadlines expected this month. Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, suggests that current market odds underestimate the chance of approval, citing progress in bipartisan regulatory developments.

The appointment of Paul Atkins as the next SEC chairman, expected to take place after President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, is seen by many as a potential catalyst for a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. Atkins is known for his pro-crypto stance, which could positively influence the SEC’s future decisions regarding digital asset ETFs.

However, analysts remain cautious. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart predicts that approval of a Solana ETF may not happen before 2026, due to ongoing lawsuits against major exchanges and the SEC’s classification of SOL as a security.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, with investors closely monitoring regulatory decisions that will shape the future of digital asset ETFs.