Ethereum Predicament: Meme War, Layer 2 Backlash, and the Lifeline of Value Reassessment

Author: BitPush

The "eternal number two" Ethereum seems out of place in this bull market. Compared to the strength of Bitcoin, SOL, and other cryptocurrencies, ETH has been hovering around $3,000 without progress. Additionally, the Ethereum Foundation's frequent selling of tokens has sparked strong dissatisfaction within the community, and market confidence in ETH seems to be wavering. Coupled with the hidden costs of the Layer 2 wars and the siphoning effect of the Solana Meme economy, Ethereum's future path appears increasingly unclear amidst various controversies.

EF's Frequent Token Sales "Lose Favor"

The Ethereum Foundation (EF) has been intermittently selling ETH, recently selling 100 ETH worth approximately $307,893. According to blockchain analytics firm SpotOnChain, this is the foundation's third ETH sell-off in 2025.

In January this year, the EF sold a total of 300 ETH (as of January 27 data), worth about $981,200. Market observers pointed out that the foundation's selling behavior has put pressure on Ethereum's price. As of the time of writing, ETH is trading slightly above $3,000, with a 30-day decline of over 7%.

However, the Ethereum Foundation still holds a large reserve of ETH. According to Arkham Intelligence, the foundation owns 269,175 ETH, worth approximately $817 million.

At the same time, on-chain activity on Ethereum is also significantly lagging behind other competing chains.

According to DappRadar data, Ethereum's on-chain transaction volume decreased by 38% to $36.5 billion over a seven-day period.

In contrast, activity on the BNB Chain surged by 112%, while Solana grew by 36%.

According to DefiLlama data, from January 14 to January 21, Ethereum generated only $46 million in fees. In comparison, Solana collected $71 million in fees, and when including contributions from Raydium, Jito, and Meteora, the total reached $309 million during the same period.

Ethereum L2 Criticized as "Band-Aids": The "Splitting" Behind Prosperity

As ETH's performance remains lackluster, the Ethereum Foundation is facing severe challenges, with increasing calls for innovation and internal restructuring. The rise of competing blockchains like Solana has intensified the necessity for Ethereum to enhance its strength and innovate within its ecosystem to maintain its competitive edge.

Layer 2 solutions like Optimism and Arbitrum have alleviated congestion and high gas fees on the Ethereum mainnet. However, competition among these Layer 2 solutions is becoming increasingly fierce, highlighting the issue of ecosystem fragmentation.

Michael Egorov, founder of the decentralized exchange Curve Finance, criticized in a report that L2 "is more like a Band-Aid… and a temporary solution rather than a foundation for building a sustainable strategy." He emphasized that the Rollup roadmap hinders composability and "leaks" most of ETH's value to L2 tokens and their operating companies.

Justin Drake from the Ethereum Foundation shared a post on X last weekend calling for "enabling native Rollup technology to end the era of Layer 2 fragmentation."

cryptocurrency research and investment firm Paradigm also called for reform. The company believes that Ethereum's current annual upgrade plan limits its ability to innovate and effectively respond to market trends. Paradigm stated, "Accelerating Ethereum's development will enable more people to enjoy the convenience of permissionless innovation, helping to pave the way for a truly global, trust-minimized financial system."

In the face of increasing pressure, the Ethereum Foundation announced plans to allocate 50,000 ETH (approximately $165 million) to support its decentralized finance ecosystem.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated that the foundation is indeed undergoing "significant adjustments" in leadership to improve transparency and better support developers.

Technical Analysis: Key Support and Market Sentiment Struggle

Historically, February and March have been bullish months for ETH.

Data from Coinglass shows that for the past six consecutive years, ETH has shown an upward trend in February, with the largest increase occurring in 2024, when it rose from $2,280 to $3,380 by the end of the month, an increase of over 46%. March has also historically been a favorable time for ETH. In the past nine years, it has risen in seven of those years, while April has seen increases in six years.

Engineer and analyst Wolf stated on X on January 26, "With eight years of analyst experience, I can confidently say I've never seen a chart as strong as ETH's; the potential here is unparalleled. This is the best asymmetric bet you can make."

Technical analyst Rakesh believes that ETH/USDT could drop to $2,850, which may become a strong support level. If the price rebounds from $2,850 but falls below the 20-day moving average ($3,308), it indicates that bears are selling on rallies. This increases the risk of breaking below $2,850. If that happens, the trading pair could fall to $2,400.

Time is running out for the bulls; if they want to stop the decline, they must push the price back above the 50-day moving average ($3,455), after which ETH/USDT may continue to rebound to $3,745.

In summary, as Solana reconstructs traffic entry with meme coins and Layer 2 becomes a value extraction machine, Ethereum's moat seems to be severely eroded. Technical advantages must translate into ecological dominance, and the loss of each price support level could trigger a collapse of faith. Where Ethereum will ultimately head remains to be seen.