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Is inflation back? The US economy is certainly showing signs of overheating with Friday’s scorching NFP print of 256k, obliterating the forecasted 164k. After last week’s macro data, rumors of any imminent rate cuts have gone up in smoke as equities have tumbled lower. Potential Trump-era tariffs have also ignited more inflation fears.

Despite the macro headwinds and lingering Silkroad fud, crypto seems to have found some footing as $91k and $3100 supports still remain intact for now. Implied vols are also at relatively modest levels and drifting lower, with only a slight Put skew on the frontend persisting until after Trump’s inauguration.

Although the vol market hasn’t reacted much, crypto isn’t out of the woods just yet. The macro storm cloud still looms with PPI (14 Jan), CPI (15 Jan) and Unemployment Claims (16 Jan) on the horizon, potentially adding fuel to the fire. As the US economy heats up, this week could be a real test for crypto to step up as an inflation hedge.