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Today's Must-Read | Twitter Featured Views [November 21]

Today's Must-Read | Twitter Featured Views [November 21]

Renata2024/11/21 07:08
By:Renata
Today's Must-Read | Twitter Featured Views [November 21] image 0
Unipcs: $FLOKI may experience an outbreak
Unipcs pointed out that although the strength of $BTC has led to a general decline in counterfeit products, the performance of $FLOKI remains strong. He shared the following important dynamics and predictions.
Market performance:
$FLOKI performed well and remained stable despite the general decline in counterfeit products.
Coinbase confirms that $FLOKI will be available for trading tomorrow.
Market background:
Recently, the mainstream Meme coins $DOGE, $BONK, and $PEPE have all experienced significant fluctuations, and the market active level has significantly increased.
Prediction:
Unipcs believes that $FLOKI may become the next token to follow the trend of mainstream Meme coins, ushering in significant market opportunities.
 
Johnny: $PNUT continues to be strong, there is still room for growth
Johnny analyzed the performance of $PNUT and pointed out that after experiencing a crazy rise, $PNUT remains strong. He shared the following views and operational plans.
Market performance:
After a significant rise, PNUT still shows significant market resilience.
Operation plan:
Johnny said he plans to build a long position when $PNUT tests the low again.
 
Gracy Chen: Industry Observation and Investment Strategy Sharing
During her recent business trip to Asia, Gracy Chen interacted with several industry leaders, summarized the current state of the cryptocurrency market and VC industry, and shared her strategies and thoughts on BTC investment.
Transformation of VC:
VC basically does not invest in primary market projects, but instead engages in other businesses, such as assisting projects in listing on Korean exchanges, participating in A-share or US stock investments, and focusing on secondary trading of BTC, large coins, AI, Meme and other small coins.
The popularity of first-level projects has declined, and the focus of VC has shifted.
Changes in market participants:
Some investors choose to quit the circle after making enough money.
When BTC broke through $94,000, many investors chose to reduce their positions, including Gracy himself.
At the same time, traditional bosses enter the market with huge amounts of capital and even consider leveraging, but such behavior is generally discouraged by Gracy.
The recovery of the US market:
The US market is once again active, with multiple players including market makers, escrow services, node operators, and project parties making a strong comeback.
Current situation of VC industry:
Excellent founding teams are scarce, project narratives are homogeneous, and trial and error costs are high.
The project life cycle is short, averaging only 9 months.
Many projects take listing as the end point, losing the motivation for subsequent development, resulting in losses in VC investment and rapid decline in project popularity.
VC is profitable on paper, but it is difficult to exit in reality (high FDV, low circulation, long lock-up period), and most VCs become buyers.
Investment strategy:
BTC's phased top judgment:
On-chain data shows that BTC may have reached the top of the stage.
The expected price of Gracy is $120K upwards and $73K downwards.
Reduction strategy:
Gracy bought BTC in advance, so the current price odds are not appropriate. He chose to reduce some positions to ensure profits, but still holds for the long term.
If BTC falls back to $73K, we will consider doing swing trading; if the price continues to rise, we will not regret the decision to reduce positions.
 
Biupa-TZC: BTC and counterfeit products market forecast today
Biupa-TZC predicts the market trend of BTC and counterfeit products today and proposes the following scenario analysis
Market forecast:
BTC pullback or shock: counterfeit products may experience a small rebound.
BTC surges to the 96-97 area: counterfeit products may barely follow the trend, but the increase is not as much as BTC's performance during fluctuations.
BTC retracement after the end of the rise: counterfeit products may hit a new low again.
Overall trend:
Today's market script is similar to Tuesday and Wednesday.
If BTC peaks in the 96-97 area and experiences a significant pullback, it is expected that counterfeit products will face a significant collapse.
Additional viewpoint:
Biupa-TZC mentioned that it is currently unimaginable that counterfeit products can still make up for the "magical plot" when BTC experiences a significant 10% pullback.
 
Pepe Boost: Reminder for making money in the MEME market, top or bottom?
Pepe Boost shared his observations and investment advice on the current MEME market, especially against the backdrop of a large influx of Binance users. He reminded investors to think calmly and adopt a prudent strategy during the highly FOMO stage of the market.
Market observation:
The current top users directly enter the first level from the second level, and a large number of newbies enter the market.
Is this the top or bottom of MEME's FOMO? It's worth pondering for every investor.
Core reminder:
Buffett's famous saying: 'The key is not how much money you can earn, but how much money you can keep.'
Supplement to PEPE Boost: Money is only truly earned when it is in one's own pocket.
Reminder for making money:
The market is already highly FOMO, even beginners are entering one after another.
Take it when it's good, make sure to at least break even.
Users who hold a large amount of SOL are advised to withdraw some assets to ensure safety.
There are still opportunities for new projects to continue to pay attention to and participate in.
For MEMEs without special highlights, reduce transaction frequency.
Get ready for a fat year, and foreign countries have already started preparing for Christmas.
Mentality suggestion:
Play MEME, don't go crazy.
In the short term, when the market reaches its peak, it will inevitably fall back. There is no wave that keeps rising in the world.
Long-term: High-quality MEME projects are still worth paying attention to and participating in.
The best time: high-quality MEMEs are best suited for bottom fishing when no one is interested, rather than going all-in during the hustle and bustle.
There are new opportunities every day to participate in PVP.
Stay tuned and wait for the emergence of new top-level narratives.
 
 
Zhang Tiangcuang: The Prisoner's Dilemma Behind the MEME Hype
Zhang Tianghong's own experience, combined with the AMM constant product formula, emphasizes the importance of locking in profits when trading Meme coins.
Analysis of the relationship between price and market value:
Starting from the internal market value of 100k, according to the constant product formula of AMM, the funds required to rise to different market values are as follows:
200K market value: Need to buy $41k, an increase of 2.43 times.
1M market value: Need to buy $216k, an increase of 4.16 times.
10M market value: Need to buy $900k, an increase of 11 times.
100M market value: Need to buy $3M, increase 33 times.
Explanation:
During the rising process, the price increases exponentially, and even small capital can easily increase the market value. For example, spending $3M can increase the market value to $100M. This mechanism is very friendly to small capital players because selling has a relatively small impact on the price and can easily lead to tens or even hundreds of times of increase.
Risk Warning:
However, the decline is also exponential. Coins with a market value of 100 million dollars may actually only need 3 million dollars of funding support.
Prisoner's Dilemma: Early sellers can sell at 100 million dollars, while late sellers may only sell at 10 million dollars.
Lesson learned: Meme coins are prone to more than 80% drawdowns, and profits must be locked in, otherwise the consequences will be very serious.
Summary:
Zhang Tiangcuo reminds that the constant product formula of AMM not only brings the pleasure of trading experience, but also makes the rise and fall show exponential changes. When trading Meme coins, it is necessary to always be vigilant about market fluctuations, lock in profits in time, and avoid repeating the same mistakes.
 
 
Rui: MEME opens the way, assets are king
Rui explores in the article how the new generation of MEME projects can gain an advantage in the era of traffic through asset publishing, and compares the strategic differences between ETH and SOL in user reach. He points out that asset publishing is the key to project cold start, which is similar to the traditional ICO era.
Historical review: the evolution of ICO and asset publishing
ICO Era (2017):
The team raises funds through public and private funds, and then builds the project in a few years. The community cost of FIL, ICP and other projects is lower than that of institutions, which is a typical example in the early stage of establishment.
Post-ICO Era (2021):
With the increase of compliance demand, the gameplay has become "private placement + airdrop + listing", with more emphasis on community compliance distribution.
Currently (after 2023):
The Meme project uses cold start publishing, which is similar to the public offering in the ICO era, but focuses more on binding user attention through assets.
User models for IQ50, IQ100, and IQ150
Rui deconstructed user segmentation using the IQ model.
IQ50 users: Newcomers to the market tend to prefer simple and direct Meme projects.
IQ100 and IQ150 users: They have an advantage in DeFi and more complex financial models, but the number of users is limited, mainly active in the ETH ecosystem.
Rui pointed out that SOL's strategy successfully attracted IQ50 users through unlimited publishing assets, with a higher ecological reach rate than ETH, forming a User Experience difference like short videos to long movies.
Case Study: AVA in the SOL Ecosystem
Project background: AVA was initially associated with Holoworld in the ETH ecosystem, but lacked popularity and asset support.
Opportunity Seize: AVA timely got on board in the SOL ecological asset frenzy and became the leader of AI Meme through traffic support.
Success path:
Attract partners through financing and resource integration. Complete a cold start with the attention economy of the bull market. Give asset value and build a more attractive narrative.
Rui believes that AVA provides a good example for VC projects in the era of traffic: small investment, big opportunity, rapid community building, and resource monetization.
Reflections on the Post-ETF Era
Rui mentioned that Bitcoin has completed Mass Adoption, while the opportunity for Altcoin lies in how to quickly release assets and attract its own IQ50 user base. The key to success lies in mastering assets (content) and attention, just like the reason why To C giants have stood firm in the past decade.
Summary:
Rui emphasized that the new generation of projects should combine attention economy with asset publishing to seize the opportunities of the traffic era. This is a shift from the traditional ecosystem to a paradigm of rapid publishing and binding users.
 
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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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