Today's Must-Read | Twitter Featured Views [November 19th]

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Renata2024/11/19 06:54

By:Renata

Today's Must-Read | Twitter Featured Views [November 19th] image 0

Ⅰ.Timo: Solana's on-chain gameplay is about controlling the number of shots

Timo recently shared his strategy and gameplay experience on Solana, and admitted that he missed some opportunities by switching from Ethereum to Solana late. After experiencing early internal trading and chain scanning failures, he adjusted his gameplay and summarized an investment strategy that suits him.

1. Two prerequisites

Focus on projects with unique narratives or mechanisms, preferably combining the two. He used ai16z and antipro as examples to emphasize that this type of project is his first choice.

2. High ceiling space

He tends to choose projects with very high upper limit space (such as projects with a market value of hundreds of millions or at least tens of millions), and will not sell projects with garbage storytelling.

3. Only play the projects shot out, not the internal game

The first scenario: After the project is launched, there is no turning back, and the narrative is very strong. He will buy at a market value of several hundred K, and choose to break even at a market value of several hundred M or sell all when he finds something wrong.

In the second scenario, if the project reaches several million or 10M and experiences a major pullback, providing him with research time, he will choose to get on board in the second phase.

4. Control the number of shots within 3-5 times a day

Recently, Timo has been shooting at most 3 times a day. He emphasized that the purpose of controlling the number of shots is:

Seize the real good opportunity (combined with the first two prerequisites).

Control the number of transactions to reduce the risk of loss. He pointed out that the reason for random investment is often that there is no limit to the number of transactions. He suggested that everyone think about how to choose if they could only invest in 10 companies in their lifetime. This way of thinking also applies to the Meme market.

See also: https://x.com/timotimoqi/status/1858574413878489155

Ⅱ.crypto Weituo: DeSci = ICO 3.0

Encryption shared his unique insights into the logic of DeSci in the article and compared it with several key stages in the history of encryption. He believes that the logic of DeSci is "ICO 3.0", a methodological innovation, rather than being obsessed with the truth or falsehood of DeSci itself.

Evolution of Encryption Logic:

ICO Era: Borrowing Fake to Repair Fake

Use ETH, which is considered as "air", to create another "air" project.

DeFi Summer: Borrowing real to repair fake

Create an "air" governance coin with a truly usable feature (such as DeFi).

The logic of DeSci: borrowing fake to cultivate truth

Use a Pump betting board ("air") to "conceptually acquire" a real scientific research-related product.

Key points:

Encryption emphasizes that this is a logic, a method, rather than being limited to the "truth" of DeSci itself. The focus should be on the process of creating consensus, rather than being obsessed with the essence of the project. This consensus process is the result of the exchange, VC, the "acquired" object, and other stakeholders' joint needs and promotion.

He concluded that this way of thinking represents methodological innovation and is the direction for further development in the field of encryption.

III. Rui: Conspiracy and Conspiracy in the Crypto Market

Rui shared his understanding of "conspiracy and conspiracy" in the cryptocurrency market in his latest article, analyzing the development logic of cryptocurrency projects from different levels based on market phenomena and cases. He used the MEME project as an example to describe the process from "conspiracy" within a small circle to "conspiracy" recognized by the large market.

The difference between conspiracy and conspiracy: reaching more users

The information fragmentation in the encryption market is severe, and players of different scales have their own ways to play.

Players with 1M-10M on the chain: focus on participating in the PumpFun project as soon as possible, and earn profits through quick operations and memes. Most of them are small circle PvP games that rely on small group pyramid schemes to find Holders.

10M-Shangsuo players: Pay attention to narrative and market trends, and focus on leading projects. These projects gradually break through the circle, have a market share, and pay more attention to finding broad Holders and Shangsuo opportunities.

Players behind the top: Look for external assistance around the valuation model. This type of project covers the most users and is also the stage with the greatest influence.

Definition of conspiracy and conspiracy

Conspiracy: After completing PvP in the early stages, the project has found the Holder group and is striving to expand to a wider range of users. For example, promoting project development through KOLs shouting orders, washing plates, promoting benefits, and throwing money.

Yangmou: Projects with healthy chip turnover at the top and back, waiting for secondary banks or external emergencies to promote market value expansion. Projects are more stable and have greater market value imagination.

The Case of Cheems: The Evolution from Conspiracy to Conspiracy

Rui mentioned BSC's MEME project Cheems as a learning case.

In the early stages, the project relied on zkSync's narrative to attract early users, but due to a cool ecosystem and a lot of incentive-based traffic, it was almost zero.

Turning point: The community decided to relocate to BSC, which rose from 10M to 40M through the push of core figures, while attracting attention by burning LP out of thin air and burning 4 million dollars.

Continuous efforts: The team has further increased its attention through donations, locking team tokens, and other means. Currently, it has reached the 100M mark.

Rui emphasized that the sincerity and efforts of the Cheems community are its core strengths. Despite facing challenges such as the lack of traffic support for BSC and the proliferation of MEV clips, they have gradually moved from "conspiracy" to "open conspiracy" through sincerity and action.

Rui said that Cheems is a story that goes from a small-scale conspiracy to a large-scale conspiracy, and then advances to an open conspiracy. The next step remains to be seen, but each step reflects the sincerity and efforts of the project.

See also: https://x.com/YeruiZhang/status/1858385385354829857

Ⅳ.Biupa-TZC: Market Observation after $BONK and $WIF Launch on Coinbase

Biupa-TZC analyzed the performance of $BONK and $WIF after their launch on Coinbase (CB) and summarized interesting market dynamics.

Market performance:

$BONK: Set a new high after going online and rose for 3 consecutive days.

$WIF: Close to new high (some exchanges slightly hit new highs), but then fell back 30% and has not risen back yet.

The trading volume of $BONK on the CB platform is 10 times that of $WIF.

$BONK surpasses $WIF to become the top player in the Solana chain.

Revelation:

Unit bias: Investors are more interested in tokens with lower prices, and this phenomenon objectively exists in the market.

Spread scope: $WIF relies more on the promotion of KOLs within the Solana chain and has not successfully broken through the circle.

Coinbase's ability to sell: CB has a significant market influence on tokens, showing strong driving effects.

See also: https://x.com/biupa/status/1858366674401116275

Ⅴ.Bugsbunny - e/acc: VC cost bottom fishing guide, updated version with a market value of 100-200

How to use this table simply:

Pay attention to tokens with high circulation rate (marked in green).

These tokens have less unlocking pressure, and the relationship between FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) and valuation multiples is healthier, making them suitable for spot buying or joining the watchlist.

Pay attention to tokens with low circulation rate and FDV far higher than valuation (marked in red).

Unlocking these tokens in the future will pose a huge dilution risk to the currency price.

Tokens valued at 1-3 times FDV:

These types of tokens belong to relatively healthy counterfeit products, and can be purchased or focused on in the 1-2 times valuation range behind the table.

Currently, the following tokens are in a relatively healthy FDV range:

#CHZ #MASK #RPL #DYDX #ZIL #WOO #ZRO #AEVO #ENJ #MANTA #SNX #ROSE #ANKR #CELO #GMX #ASTR #SSV #MANA

It is recommended to join the Watchlist for key attention.

Tokens to note:

#BLUR: In the current situation where the NFT narrative is poor, FDV is more than five times higher than the valuation, and extra attention should be paid to the risks.

#ETHFI #EIGEN #ALT #ARKM #SAGA: The FDV of these tokens is 6.54 times, 6.9 times, 6.84 times, 12 times, and 18 times the valuation, respectively. Special attention should be paid to bubbles and risks.

#PENDLE: FDV is 29 times the valuation, but its externalities, profitability, and innovation are good and can be observed separately.

New content added this time:

Project circulation rate: The impact of unlocked quantity on future selling pressure.

Green: High circulation rate, low unlocking pressure.

Red: Low circulation rate, high unlocking pressure.

Blue: Medium circulation rate, with certain selling pressure.

FDV and valuation multiple:

Green: FDV is 1-3 times the valuation, and the price space is relatively reasonable.

Yellow: FDV is lower than valuation, possibly due to business or ecological issues leading to low market value.

Blue: FDV is 3-5 times the valuation, with some bubble but little impact. You can pay attention to the development of the project.

Red: FDV far exceeds valuation, there may be a huge bubble, be wary of the backstabbing risk of long-term holding.

See also: https://x.com/biupa/status/1858366674401116275

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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