EMC Bitcoin Weekly Observation (June 17-June 23): Short-term liquidation continues, testing the $60,000 mark

Original author: Shang2046

The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

The market continues to fluctuate between $60,000 and $70,000, paying off debts to reach a new all-time high ahead of schedule

Market Week

BTC continued to adjust downward in the short term, and as of June 24, it once fell below $61,000. Last week, we predicted that the market would enter a short-term clearing phase of weak equilibrium, and the first target of clearing would be Bitcoin miners. As the price of the currency fell, more and more miners sold all their daily output (maximum supply 450 coins/day) and also sold their solid inventory.

Unfortunately, liquidation is often accompanied by a certain degree of stampede. The short-term investor cost line (raised to $64,000), which has repeatedly received strong support over the past year, has not been effectively resisted. After falling below $61,000, it is only 8% away from the largest adjustment position since BTCs historical high of $56,500.

During this period, the news that the German government cleared and confiscated BTC and Mt.Gox repaid investors BTC was just a little negative boost to the weak market. More importantly, the Federal Reserve continued its previous hawkish remarks and further strengthened the expectation of one interest rate cut this year. The strong Nasdaq index also adjusted, and Nvidia fell more than 5% in a single day.

In a fragile market, every external factor is important. But it can be said for sure that the core reason is that the entire market is still paying off the historical high that came ahead of schedule. Historically, BTC has experienced long adjustment periods before and after the three halvings. The adjustment after the last halving took more than 6 months, and this rapid rise is no exception. The good news is that the market has once again provided investors with a window of opportunity to get on board calmly.

Supply and demand structure

Last week, the US dollar stablecoin inflow was $708 million, more than double the previous week. USDT and USDC were at the same frequency, with inflows of $375 million and $333 million respectively. But it should be noted that the stock of stablecoins on exchanges is declining. ETFs recorded outflows on all four trading days of the week, with a single-day outflow of more than 100 million and a total outflow of more than $500 million. This sell-off is one of the reasons for the downward price. One point that needs to be corrected is that institutional holdings in ETFs only account for about 22%, and the main force is hedge funds. When buying spot ETFs, they often open short positions on CME to hedge, which is far from contributing direct momentum to the long-term rise of the market. At the same time, retail investors who hold more than 75% of positions have a typical chasing up and killing down effect. In short, the upward momentum brought by US ETFs is temporarily in a sluggish state, which requires a long enough time to digest. For CME contracts, open interest is still high, at around $10 billion, down more than 10% from its peak, but volume has fallen to around $1.7 billion, close to the low of $1.6 billion in early May.

On-chain data

The data on the BTC chain continued to be sluggish, with new addresses and Fees revenue remaining low, and Transactions and value transfers rising slightly, which is suspected to be related to the activeness of Runes and the surrender and profit-taking of long and short hands.

EMC BTC Cycle indicator

The eMerge data engine shows that the bull market index is 0.125, and the market has once again entered a bull market dormancy period.

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